Opinion: HSR Boondoggle, revisited

Since 2008, when Californians passed Proposition 1A, I’ve written about two dozen columns in opposition to the High-Speed Rail that is projected as a statewide transportation system. Initially, I thought it was impractical because of the state’s geography and geology. But, by 2010, I also opposed it because it seemed to be doomed financially.

The proposition authorized the California High Speed Rail Authority to issue $9.95 billion in bonds to construct the system. But, by Nov. 3, 2010, the CAHSRA had only a small fraction of that amount granted by the state and the U.S. Department of Transportation. Moreover, the projected cost of the system had been grossly underestimated. And, beyond that, the CAHSRA plan was to build the initial line from Borden to Corcoran.

Projected Cost, California High-Speed Rail System

2011 — $65.4 billion

2012 — $69 billion

2013 — $70 billion

2015 — $86 billion

2018 — $77 billion

2020 — $100 billion

2022 — $105 billion

Projected Cost, California High-Speed Rail System

2011 — $65.4 billion

2012 — $69 billion

2013 — $70 billion

2015 — $86 billion

2018 — $77 billion

2020 — $100 billion

2022 — $105 billion

Old technology

As the years went by, it became apparent that, even if all the obstacles could be overcome, the projected cost would be prohibitive. Yet, the CAHSRA plodded on, revealing new plan after new plan. It showcased certain accomplishments, like the bridge that spans the San Joaquin River between Madera and Fresno. But there are literally hundreds of miles of “raw” land between California’s Stonehenge replicas. Yet, not one single mile of track has been set in place.

When the system was proposed, it was “sold” to the people as an example of new technology that would reaffirm California’s place as the harbinger of a bright future. However, even in 2008, it was an application of 19th century technology (trains), and “high-speed” rail systems already existed in other countries. Japan’s Shinkansen service had been running since 1964 and France’s TGV since 1981.

As I pointed out earlier this year, other countries already have bypassed California. In addition to Japan and France, these countries have high speed rail: Austria, Belgium, China, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and Turkey.

Rail stations

In the October 23, 2022, edition of the Fresno Bee, Tim Sheehan reported that planning is now underway for the first passenger stations along the Central Valley route. The CAHSRA awarded a $35.3 million contract to two London firms, Foster + Partners (architecture) and Arup (engineering) to create a preliminary design for stations in Merced, Hanford, Fresno, and Bakersfield.

In my column on May 28, 2022, I mentioned that Madera was given a passing comment. Perhaps some kind of “transfer” station might be placed in the vicinity of Avenue 12 and SR 99. According to Sheehan, “A station in Madera is also under development under a separate process led by the San Joaquin Joint Powers Authority, the agency that oversees Amtrak operations in the San Joaquin Valley.” As far as I’m concerned, that pretty well ends speculation that Madera will have a station on the HSR line, if it’s ever actually completed.

Also, gone is the expectation of traveling from San Francisco to Los Angeles in three comfortable hours of luxury seating on a true bullet train. Under current plans, which will undoubtedly be modified many times before our grandchildren ever board a high-speed train, commuters to L.A. will begin in S.F., stop in Milbrae, snake their way through the crowded West Bay area to San Jose, sling-shot down to Gilroy, climb Pacheco Pass and then slide down to the Chowchilla wye from which they’ll slither through Madera to Fresno, then stop in Hanford (possibly to sample the goodies at Superior Dairy), and zoom through 100 miles of nothing to Bakersfield.

At that point, even our grandchildren may be stymied. The Southern Tehachapi Mountains rise between Bakersfield and the Los Angeles Basin. At this writing, I’m not aware of any specific plans as to how the bullet train will pass over, tunnel through, or find some way around that obstruction. But there is a plan that shows a 72-mile stretch of track to be “environmentally cleared” in 2023-2024 between Bakersfield and Burbank. If that is realized, say a couple of decades from now, the aged bullet train will bypass the Brightline West track to Las Vegas and make stops in Burbank, Los Angeles, Norwalk, Fullerton, and Anaheim.

On March 17, 1930, construction began on the Empire State Building. It opened its doors on May 1, 1931. For decades, it stood as the tallest building in the world and the emblem of American know-how. If the California High-Speed Rail is ever completed, it will be the slowest and most expensive high-speed rail system in existence and a testament to the Golden State’s procrastination, red tape, blundering, and ultimate failure. It’s completed cost may run close to $1 trillion, and a train ticket from San Francisco to Los Angeles may cost more than the boarding pass to a supersonic passenger jet.

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Jim Glynn is Professor Emeritus of Sociology. He may be contacted at j_glynn@att.net.